Ukraine and your investments

We all feel sick for the people of Ukraine who are currently the victims of an unprovoked attack from Russia. No one is certain how this will end. While we support the Ukrainian people as they bravely fight for their freedom, recent moves in the stock market may have you concerned. That’s completely understandable. The market has struggled for the last few weeks.

As many of you know, I always encourage you to step back and look at current events in the context of history. I’m in no way minimizing Russia’s egregious attack on Ukraine, but when we look at past geopolitical events, their effect on the stock market has typically been short-lived. As you will see in the chart below, market declines are rarely very deep and if they are, recovery doesn’t take long. In fact, if you have uninvested cash that you don’t need for several years, you might consider investing some. (Please consult your Financial Advisor) As you can see in the chart, even after Japan’s unprovoked attack on Pearl Harbor, the market recovered in less than a year. In many other cases, the time to recovery was much shorter.

Click chart for larger pdf image

While concern about our geopolitical situation is reasonable, when it comes to your investments, consider this: The average intra-year decline in the stock market is around 14%.* This means that every year (on average) some event we didn’t predict caused the market to fall about 14%, and later, recover. When you look at the chart below, the long-term trend is indisputable. There is no way to know for certain how long the conflict in Ukraine will continue, or what the outcome will be, but based on past events, it probably makes sense to stick with your long term plan. Let me know if you have any questions, and please pray for Ukraine. 🇺🇦

S&P 500 value 1928-03/07/2022. Click to enlarge.

*Source: FactSet, Standard & Poors, JP Morgan Asset Management.

Disclosure: The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.